Watertown - EdTribune SD - South Dakota Education Data

South Dakota Schools Lost 13 Points of White Share in 17 Years

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

In the 2007-08 school year, roughly 82 of every 100 students in South Dakota's public schools were white. By 2024-25, that figure had fallen to 69. The 13.2 percentage-point drop did not happen because white families left the state en masse. It happened because South Dakota's schools added 15,864 students overall while white enrollment fell by 5,275, and every other racial group grew.

The transformation registered most sharply in the state's two anchor cities. Sioux Falls^↗, the largest district, dropped from 77.1% white to 54.1%. In Huron^↗, a small city 110 miles to the northwest, white share plummeted from 80.2% to 38.3%, driven by Karen refugees from Myanmar and Hispanic meatpacking workers who turned a shrinking prairie town into one of the most diverse school districts in the Northern Plains.

Where the Growth Came From

Hispanic enrollment nearly quadrupled, rising from 3,279 students in 2007-08 to 12,845 in 2024-25, a gain of 9,566 students and a 291.7% increase. Hispanic students now compose 9.3% of enrollment, up from 2.7%. Multiracial enrollment, a category that did not exist in the 2007-08 reporting, reached 8,681 students and 6.3% of total enrollment. Black enrollment rose 70.4%, from 2,964 to 5,051. Asian enrollment grew 62.3%, from 1,422 to 2,308.

Native American enrollment, long the state's largest minority group at 11.8% of total enrollment in 2007-08, held essentially flat in absolute terms, declining just 194 students to 14,283. But its share slipped to 10.3% as other groups grew around it. Hispanic enrollment, at 9.3%, is now just one percentage point behind Native American enrollment as the state's second-largest demographic group.

The multiracial surge deserves a caveat. The 2020 Census recorded a 170% increase in South Dakotans identifying as multiracial, a jump that state demographer Weiwei Zhang attributed to both interracial families and changes in how people choose to identify. In school enrollment data, the multiracial category appeared after 2008 and cannot be traced before then. Some portion of the 8,681 multiracial students in 2024-25 would have been counted in a single-race category under the earlier reporting system, meaning the white decline and the multiracial rise are partly linked by reclassification rather than new arrivals.

The Sioux Falls Shift

Sioux Falls enrolled 24,841 students in 2024-25, up 17.4% from 21,157 in 2007-08. The district grew, but the composition of that growth was lopsided. Hispanic enrollment tripled from 1,319 to 4,213, gaining 2,894 students. Black enrollment nearly doubled, adding 1,544 students to reach 3,339. Multiracial enrollment added 2,055 students. White enrollment, meanwhile, fell by 2,866 to 13,445.

The result: Sioux Falls went from a district where more than three in four students were white to one where barely more than half are. DeeAnn Konrad, the district's community relations coordinator, told Sioux Falls Live that diversity has increased "each year now for over 20-plus years." The district now reports more than 100 languages spoken across its schools and more than 3,000 students learning English as a second or third language.

Part of the white decline in Sioux Falls reflects not departure from the region but movement within it. Harrisburg^↗, a fast-growing suburb south of Sioux Falls, gained 3,164 white students over the same period, the largest white enrollment increase of any district in the state. Brandon Valley^↗, another Sioux Falls suburb, added 1,288. Tea Area^↗ gained 855. The Sioux Falls metro is not losing white families. It is sorting them.

The Huron Exception

Huron's transformation is different in kind. The district enrolled 2,150 students in 2007-08 and 3,042 in 2024-25, growing 41.5% while most rural South Dakota districts shrank. White enrollment fell from 1,724 to 1,164, but what replaced it was not suburban spillover. It was international migration.

Asian enrollment in Huron surged from 83 to 610, a 634.9% increase driven almost entirely by Karen refugees from Myanmar. When Dakota Provisions opened a turkey processing plant in 2005, the company began recruiting Karen refugees from the Twin Cities to fill jobs. The community chose to embrace the newcomers.

"Do we want to embrace this and try to make our community survive and thrive ... or just stay the status quo?" -- Mayor Paul Aylward, SDPB, 2015

Mark Heuston, the plant's HR director, told PBS NewsHour that "without the Karen people, we probably would not be able to run the turkey plant." The facility processes 20,000 turkeys daily. Hispanic enrollment rose simultaneously, from 209 to 1,066, as food processing jobs attracted Latino workers alongside the Karen community. Today, 35.0% of Huron's students are Hispanic and 20.1% are Asian. Only 38.3% are white.

Sixteen districts statewide now have majority-minority enrollment, up from 12 in 2007-08. Most are on or adjacent to Native American reservations: Oglala Lakota County^↗ (0.8% white), Todd County^↗ (1.0%), Eagle Butte (1.4%), McLaughlin (1.5%). Huron stands out as the only district whose flip was driven primarily by immigration rather than proximity to a reservation. It also flipped faster than any other, dropping 42 percentage points of white share in 17 years.

A Statewide Pattern with Local Engines

Hispanic growth concentrated in predictable locations: Sioux Falls added 2,894 Hispanic students, Rapid City Area^↗ added 959, and Huron added 857. But smaller communities saw proportionally larger changes. Aberdeen^↗'s Hispanic enrollment grew from 46 to 471, a 923.9% increase. Harrisburg went from 16 Hispanic students to 422. Mitchell went from 58 to 303.

These patterns track national trends of Hispanic population growth in rural Midwestern communities anchored by food processing and agriculture. South Dakota's birth rate has fallen from 15 per 1,000 in 2007 to 12 recently, with white women's fertility rate (62.2 per 1,000 women of childbearing age) running lower than rates for Hispanic women (83.4) and Native American women (92.4), according to March of Dimes data. Differential birth rates, combined with immigration-driven population growth in meatpacking communities, are the most likely drivers of the enrollment share shift.

White enrollment losses, meanwhile, concentrated in the state's established cities. Rapid City Area lost 3,128 white students, the most of any district. Sioux Falls lost 2,866. Watertown^↗ lost 814. But these losses were partly offset by suburban white gains in Harrisburg (+3,164), Brandon Valley (+1,288), and Tea Area (+855), suggesting geographic redistribution rather than net out-migration from the state.

What the Data Cannot Show

South Dakota's race data has a significant gap: no race or ethnicity information is available at any level for the years 2011 through 2020. The comparison here relies on 2007-08 as a starting point and 2024-25 as an endpoint, with no visibility into whether the shift was gradual or concentrated in particular years. The 2022 and 2023 school years are also incomplete, missing Native American and Pacific Islander counts at the state aggregation level, which makes year-over-year tracking within the recent window unreliable for those groups.

The multiracial category introduces additional uncertainty. Students who might have checked "white" and one other box in 2008 could now be counted as multiracial, which would amplify both the white decline and the multiracial rise without any actual change in who is attending school. The degree of this reclassification effect is impossible to quantify from enrollment data alone.

The Service Question

The demographic shift carries operational weight regardless of its causes. When Sioux Falls reports that 44.6% of students come from diverse backgrounds and enrolls more than 3,000 English language learners, the instructional model is structurally different from a district that is 82% white. English learner programs, multilingual family outreach, and culturally responsive instruction all carry per-pupil costs that exceed general education. Sioux Falls is already facing a $1.5 million budget shortfall as total enrollment plateaus while demand for specialized services continues to rise.

Sioux Falls is already facing a $1.5 million budget shortfall as total enrollment plateaus while demand for ELL services rises. It has 100 languages in its buildings and 3,000 students learning English. Harrisburg went from 16 Hispanic students to 422 in 17 years and is diversifying faster than any suburb in the state. The demographic shift is not arriving. It arrived. What has not arrived, in most districts, is the staffing and programming to match it.

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24 South Dakota Districts Hit Record Lows

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Rapid City Area Schools^↗, the second-largest district in South Dakota, enrolled 12,040 students in 2024-25. That is the lowest figure in the district's recorded history, down 13.9% from its 2012 peak of 13,982. Rapid City is not alone. Twenty-four South Dakota school districts are at their all-time enrollment lows, and collectively they serve 25,019 students, 18.0% of the state's total. At the same time, 20 districts sit at all-time highs, nearly all of them in the Sioux Falls^↗ suburban ring.

The split captures a state pulling apart. South Dakota added students for 12 consecutive years, from 122,384 in 2006-07 through 2018-19, dipped briefly in 2019-20, then rebounded to a peak of 141,429 in 2021-22. That growth era is over. The state has now declined for three straight years, losing 2,568 students since the peak, with 2024-25's drop of 1,726 the steepest in at least 18 years.

The two South Dakotas

The 24 districts at record lows and 20 at record highs occupy different economic universes. The record-high districts are overwhelmingly in the Sioux Falls metro, led by Harrisburg^↗ (6,398 students, up 272.8% since 2006-07), Brandon Valley^↗ (5,206, up 72.5%), and Tea Area^↗ (2,514, up 111.3%). Sioux Falls itself has essentially plateaued at 24,841, down slightly from its 2022-23 peak of 25,228. The growth is in the suburban ring, not the city center.

The record-low districts span western South Dakota, reservation communities, and small towns. After Rapid City, the largest are Watertown^↗ (3,425, down 14.7% from its 2015 peak), Todd County^↗ (1,956, down 9.3% from 2020), and Custer^↗ (854, down 10.6% from 2018). Several smaller districts have lost a quarter to two-thirds of their peak enrollment: Bowdle^↗ is down to 45 students from a peak of 147, a 69.4% decline. Newell^↗ has fallen 42.4%, Lead-Deadwood^↗ 34.0%.

Rapid City's long slide

Rapid City peaked at 13,982 students in 2011-12 and has been unable to recover. The district has now declined in six consecutive reporting years (excluding 2020-21, for which data is incomplete). It lost 800 students in the single year from 2018-19 to 2019-20, then continued bleeding at a slower pace: 66, 310, 120, and 273 in the years since.

The losses are not simply a function of population decline. A Rapid City Area Schools board member told the Rapid City Journal that "people are moving here with their families" but "not enrolling in our schools, or they're pulling them out." The district has lost approximately 1,700 students over the past decade while homeschool and private school enrollment has grown.

That pattern is statewide. South Dakota's home-schooled student population rose 143% from 4,333 to 10,536 between 2015-16 and 2023-24, the largest proportional increase of any state reporting data for every year in that range. At roughly $7,000 per student in state funding, the shift represents tens of millions in annual revenue that has moved out of the public system.

Where the growth went

While Rapid City contracted, the Sioux Falls suburban ring exploded. Harrisburg added an average of 260 students per year over the past 18 years, growing from 1,716 to 6,398. It has built nearly one new building every two years to keep pace, at an average construction cost of $166 per square foot, well below the $287 regional average.

Brandon Valley and Tea Area followed a similar trajectory, more than doubling since 2006-07. Sioux Falls, by contrast, has grown just 24.2% over the same period and posted its second consecutive year of decline in 2024-25.

The pattern is a classic suburban donut: the core district plateaus or declines while surrounding communities absorb new residential development. South Dakota's unrestricted open enrollment policy allows families to send children to any public school in the state regardless of residence, which may accelerate the sorting. Families who remain within Sioux Falls city limits can still enroll in Harrisburg or Brandon Valley.

Small districts and reservation schools

The deepest percentage declines are concentrated in districts under 500 students. Lead-Deadwood, the historic Black Hills mining district, has fallen from 894 to 590 students since 2011, a 34.0% decline and the steepest among mid-sized districts at record lows. Superintendent Dr. Erik Person attributed the challenges to housing shortages, telling KOTA Territory News that recent population growth in the Lead and Deadwood area "doesn't really help with enrollment" because many newcomers are retirees buying second homes.

Todd County, which serves the Rosebud Indian Reservation, has declined from 2,156 to 1,956 since 2019-20. The district faces compounding challenges beyond enrollment numbers: chronic absenteeism reached 71% in 2023-24, with the median household income of $33,800 less than half the state average. Todd County High School Principal Randy Pirner told Dakota News Now that "COVID set us back 10 years because kids who aren't going to school in kindergarten aren't going to be going to school when we get them in high school."

Watertown, the state's seventh-largest district at 3,425 students, is considering closing one of its five elementary schools as enrollment continues to fall. The district has lost 591 students, 14.7%, since its 2015 peak, driven in part by declining birth rates in Codington County.

The acceleration problem

The year-over-year data tells the sharpest story. South Dakota gained between 1,000 and 2,200 students every year from 2009-10 through 2018-19, with smaller gains in the two years before and a dip of 288 in 2019-20. The 2021-22 rebound of 2,275 looked like a return to form. Instead, the state lost 424 in 2022-23, 418 in 2023-24, and 1,726 in 2024-25. The decline is accelerating: last year's loss was four times larger than either of the two preceding years.

Statewide, exactly half of South Dakota's 146 districts with comparable data declined between 2019-20 and 2024-25 (73 districts), while 72 grew and one was flat. The losses and gains nearly cancel out in aggregate, but the distribution is lopsided: declining districts collectively lost 4,490 students while growing districts gained 4,416. The state's net loss of 74 students over five years masks deep geographic divergence.

South Dakota's state demographer, Weiwei Zhang, has projected that children will drop below 20% of the state's population by 2030, while adults over 65 will surpass 20%. The state's birth rate has fallen from 15 per 1,000 in 2007 to 12 per 1,000. Even with relatively high fertility by national standards, the kindergarten pipeline is shrinking.

Redfield^↗ has declined for eight consecutive years. Lead-Deadwood for seven. Rapid City for six. None show signs of turning around. For Bowdle, at 45 students, the arithmetic is existential: one more family leaving could trigger the state's mandatory reorganization planning threshold. For Watertown, at 3,425 and eyeing an elementary school closure, the decisions are about which building goes dark and which bus routes get cut. None of these choices can be reversed easily if the students return. Most will not.

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South Dakota Gained Students During COVID. Now the Bill Is Coming Due.

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Most states lost students during the pandemic. South Dakota added them.

Between the 2019-20 and 2021-22 school years, public school enrollment in South Dakota grew by 2,275 students, a 1.6% gain, at a time when national public school enrollment fell 2.7%. Eighty-seven of the state's 149 districts gained enrollment. The Sioux Falls^↗ suburbs boomed. The state's long growth streak, which had already added 17,058 students over the prior 12 years, appeared to have survived a shock that broke enrollment trajectories in nearly every other state.

That growth has now reversed. South Dakota hit a peak of 141,429 students in the 2021-22 school year and has declined every year since, falling to 138,861 in 2024-25. The 2024-25 loss of 1,726 students is the largest single-year decline in the dataset, more than double the two prior years' losses combined.

The growth that wasn't supposed to end

South Dakota grew in 12 consecutive years from 2007-08 through 2018-19, adding an average of 1,420 students per year. The only interruption before the current decline was a minor 288-student dip in 2019-20. Through COVID, enrollment surged to a new high of 141,429.

The source of that gain was concentrated. The ten-district Sioux Falls metro area accounted for 1,398 of the 2,275-student statewide increase, or 61.5% of the total. Harrisburg^↗ alone added 463 students. Tea Area^↗ gained 317. Brandon Valley^↗ added 267. The Sioux Falls School District, already the state's largest at 24,855, grew by 269.

On the losing side, the declines were scattered among smaller communities. Aberdeen^↗ lost 151 students. Watertown^↗ lost 148. Todd County^↗, home to the Rosebud Sioux Reservation, lost 112. Rapid City Area Schools^↗, the state's second-largest district, shed 66 students during the COVID window, continuing a decline that began years earlier.

A suburban engine and a rural drag

The divergence between metropolitan and rural South Dakota long predates COVID, but the pandemic sharpened it. Since 2007, the Sioux Falls metro has grown 44.1%, adding more than 13,000 students. The rest of the state has grown just 3.0%.

Harrisburg's trajectory captures the dynamic in miniature. The district enrolled 1,716 students in 2007. By 2024-25, it reached 6,398, a 272.8% increase over 18 years. It is now the third-largest district in the state and, according to the Sioux Falls Chamber of Commerce, "has for years been the fastest-growing school district in the state."

Rapid City, by contrast, peaked at 13,982 in 2012 and has declined in nine of the 13 years since, falling to 12,040 in 2024-25. That is a loss of 1,942 students, or 13.9%, over a period when the state as a whole was still growing. Homeschooling registrations in the Rapid City district tripled from 481 to 1,681 between 2013 and 2023.

What pulled families in

South Dakota's COVID-era enrollment gain tracked a broader population surge. The Dakota Institute found that the state gained roughly 6,300 net domestic migrants between 2020 and 2021, along with $450 million in additional income from those households. Between 2021 and 2022, net domestic migration reached 8,424, and the state's population growth rate hit 1.52%, four times the national average and fifth-fastest in the country.

The timing coincides with South Dakota's approach to the pandemic. While schools did close in spring 2020, the state prioritized face-to-face instruction for the 2020-21 school year. By September 2020, most schools were operating in person, and by June 2021 all schools had returned to in-person learning. In-migration from states with longer school closures is a plausible contributing factor, though enrollment data alone cannot distinguish between new arrivals and families who might otherwise have left.

South Dakota also entered the pandemic with demographic tailwinds that most states lacked. The state's total fertility rate is the highest in the nation and the only one close to the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. Births have remained "fairly stable" even as national birth rates fell, ranking behind only Utah and Texas.

The reversal: 2,568 students gone in three years

The post-2022 decline has accelerated sharply. The state lost 424 students in 2022-23, another 418 in 2023-24, and then 1,726 in 2024-25. That final figure is larger than any annual gain the state posted during the growth era except for 2010-12 and 2016.

Two forces are converging. The migration boom that fed suburban growth has cooled. Net domestic migration dropped from over 3,000 in 2021-22 to roughly 600 in 2023-24, a decline of more than 80%. Fewer families are moving in.

At the same time, alternative instruction is pulling students out. South Dakota's alternative instruction enrollment hit 12,433 in 2025-26, up from roughly 5,342 before the pandemic, a 130% increase. That 12,433 figure represents 7.6% of all school-age children receiving an education in the state. Governor Larry Rhoden framed the shift as a feature: "Regardless of where they receive their education, my goal as governor is to support innovation."

Kindergarten is the leading indicator

The clearest signal of what comes next is in the kindergarten numbers. South Dakota's K enrollment rebounded from a COVID-year dip of 11,452 (2019-20) to a high of 12,082 (2021-22), then fell in each of the next three years, reaching 10,954 in 2024-25. That is 498 fewer kindergartners than during the COVID year itself, and the lowest K enrollment since 2009.

South Dakota's birth rate, while still the highest in the nation, fell to 12.2 per 1,000 population in 2023, the lowest in the state's recorded history. Each kindergarten cohort that enters smaller than the 12th-grade class it eventually replaces locks in further total enrollment decline. In 2024-25, the state enrolled 10,954 kindergartners but graduated 12th-grade classes of comparable or larger size, a pipeline contraction that compounds every year.

What the COVID exception cost

South Dakota's COVID-era gain bought time, but it may have also masked a structural transition. The state's growth era was never primarily about natural increase. It was powered by in-migration, concentrated in one metro area, during a period of unusual national disruption. When migration slowed, the underlying arithmetic reasserted itself.

In-migration has dropped from over 3,000 net domestic arrivals in 2021-22 to roughly 600 in 2023-24. Alternative instruction adds another 1,000 students per year to the non-public rolls. Harrisburg and Tea Area are still growing, but they are running out of room to offset what the rest of the state is losing.

South Dakota watched its neighbors hemorrhage students during COVID and thought it had dodged the national trend. The last three years carry a blunt message: the state did not avoid the enrollment decline. It delayed it.

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Rapid City Hits Its Lowest Enrollment on Record

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT

In the 2024-25 school year, South Dakota's statewide enrollment stood 6.9% higher than it did 13 years ago. Its second-largest school district moved in the opposite direction. Rapid City Area Schools^↗ enrolled 12,040 students in 2024-25, the lowest figure in at least 19 years of state data and likely the lowest in more than three decades, according to a community demographic analysis that tracked the district back to 1991-92. The gap between Rapid City and the state it anchors has never been wider.

Since its 2012 peak of 13,982 students, the district has shed 1,942, a 13.9% decline. Six consecutive years of losses have erased any ambiguity about the trajectory: this is not a COVID dip that will self-correct. It is a structural contraction fed by a collapsing kindergarten pipeline, a bus system that cannot get students to school, and a community grappling with a federal civil rights investigation that found the district discriminated against its Native American students.

A decline the state did not share

What makes Rapid City's trajectory so unusual is the backdrop. South Dakota added 8,986 students between 2012 and 2025, a 6.9% increase. Rapid City lost 1,942 over the same period. Its share of statewide enrollment fell from 10.8% to 8.7%. In 2012, roughly one in nine South Dakota students attended Rapid City schools. Now it is closer to one in 11.

The divergence is even sharper among peers. Harrisburg^↗, a Sioux Falls suburb, more than doubled (+111.4%). Brandon Valley^↗ grew 50.5%. Huron^↗, powered by refugee resettlement, added 31.0%. Among the state's eight largest districts, only Watertown^↗ also declined, and its 11.6% loss was smaller than Rapid City's.

Sioux Falls^↗, the state's largest district, now enrolls more than twice as many students as Rapid City. In 2007, Rapid City was 67% of Sioux Falls' size. By 2025 it had fallen to 48.5%.

Six years of red ink

The year-over-year pattern makes the structural nature of the decline visible. The district has not posted a single year of growth since 2018, when it added 72 students. The 2020 loss of 800 students, the single worst year in the dataset, coincided with the pandemic. But the bleeding continued: losses of 66, 310, 120, and 273 followed in successive years.

The six-year streak is the longest sustained decline in the dataset. Before 2019, Rapid City's pattern was cyclical. It fell for two years, then rose for two or three. That pattern broke in 2019 and has not returned.

The bottom is falling out of the pipeline

The most consequential number in the dataset is not the all-time low itself. It is the kindergarten class. In 2012, 1,262 children entered Rapid City kindergarten. In 2025, that number was 814, a 35.5% decline. The district now enrolls fewer kindergartners than 12th graders (814 vs. 850), a K-to-12 ratio of 95.8 that signals the decline has not finished working through the system.

The grade-by-grade pattern is a textbook pipeline collapse. Every grade lost students between 2012 and 2025, but the losses are steepest at the youngest grades and taper as you move up: kindergarten fell 35.5%, first grade 28.9%, second grade 25.5%, third grade 22.8%. By the time you reach the middle school grades, losses are in the single digits. Grade 12 actually grew by 1.2%, reflecting the larger cohorts that entered the system a decade ago and are now aging out.

Elementary enrollment (PK through fifth grade) dropped by 1,518 students, a 21.9% decline that accounts for 78% of the district's total losses. Middle school enrollment fell 7.7%. High school enrollment fell 4.7%. When the current kindergarten cohort reaches high school, the district will be substantially smaller than it is today.

Where the students went

The RCAS Forward demographic study, an independent community analysis, identified five destinations for departing students: homeschooling, private schools, transfers to nearby public districts, early graduations, and dropouts. South Dakota allows open enrollment transfers between any public districts in the state, and the neighboring Douglas^↗ and Meade^↗ districts have both grown in recent years.

Former Assistant Superintendent Dave Janak offered a demographic explanation that the community analysis highlighted: while Rapid City's overall population has grown, much of that growth comes from retirees rather than families with school-age children. Pennington County added residents in 2023-24, but the Dakota Institute found the rate of growth slowed substantially compared to prior years, with Pennington and Minnehaha counties together adding just 2,320 residents versus 4,682 the year before.

Transportation may also be pushing families away. The district is 12 bus drivers short of full staffing and eliminated more than 100 bus stops for the 2025-26 school year, with many buses operating at just 50% capacity. SDPB reported that the district's attendance rate stands at 92.87%, with North Middle School, Central High School, and alternative programs falling below 90%. Chronic absenteeism has nearly doubled statewide since 2019, and Pennington County officials have shifted to intervention over punishment, citing housing instability and transportation barriers as root causes.

A civil rights shadow

The enrollment data cannot isolate how many families have left because of the district's racial climate. But the timeline is suggestive. A U.S. Department of Education Office for Civil Rights compliance review, initiated in December 2010, found in May 2024 that Native American students faced pervasive discipline disparities: they were 4.83 times more likely to be suspended out of school than white peers and 5.84 times more likely to be arrested. Only 2.48% of advanced learning middle school students were Native American, despite Native American students representing 18% of the middle school population.

"The agreement exists because the Rapid City Area school board needed to be held accountable." — Nick Tilsen, founder of NDN Collective, quoted by DRG News

The district agreed to hire a discipline equity supervisor and an advanced learning coordinator, establish a standing committee with Native American community members, and revise its discipline and truancy policies. In April 2025, the Trump administration withdrew from the resolution agreement, citing that it was "wrongly rooted in efforts to promote diversity, equity and inclusion."

Native American students make up 17.8% of Rapid City's enrollment, roughly 2,139 students. The district's demographic composition, with 57.1% white students, 12.1% multiracial, and 10.6% Hispanic, makes it one of the most diverse in a state where many districts enroll overwhelmingly white student bodies. Whether the federal withdrawal changes the district's implementation of the reforms it had agreed to is an open question.

The fiscal arithmetic

South Dakota's school funding formula is built on a target teacher salary and student-teacher ratio, which means enrollment losses translate directly into reduced state aid. Each student who leaves shrinks the district's formula allocation, while the fixed costs of buildings, bus fleets, and administrative staff remain.

The operational bind is visible in the grade data. Elementary schools have lost more than a fifth of their students, but buildings, heating systems, and administrative staff do not scale down proportionally. Meanwhile, Superintendent Jamie Jo Thompson noted that some elementary schools are actually at or near capacity, with enrollment increases at schools like Valley View even as the district total falls. The decline is not uniform across buildings, which makes consolidation decisions politically and logistically complex.

What to watch

The 814 kindergartners who entered Rapid City schools in fall 2024 will determine the district's enrollment trajectory for the next 13 years. If the kindergarten class continues to shrink at its recent pace, the district could fall below 11,000 students within three to four years, potentially triggering facility closures or consolidations that no school board welcomes.

The bus driver shortage and chronic absenteeism may be compounding the enrollment decline, or they may be symptoms of a community where fewer families see the public schools as their default choice. Either way, Rapid City is growing as a city while its school district is not. That gap, now in its sixth consecutive year, is the central fact any incoming superintendent, school board candidate, or state legislator must contend with.

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South Dakota's 13-Year Growth Streak Is Over

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Correction (March 15, 2026): An earlier version of this article stated Sioux Falls had shed 283 students since its 2023 peak of 25,228; the 283 figure was actually the loss since 2022, not the 2023 peak. Additionally, Rapid City's most recent annual loss was 273 students, not 267 as originally reported. School year labels for peak enrollment years have also been corrected.

For 13 consecutive years, from 2007 through 2019, South Dakota public schools grew. Every single year. The state added 18,007 students across that stretch, a 14.8% increase that tracked neatly alongside a broader population boom in the Sioux Falls metro, refugee resettlement in meatpacking towns, and a birth rate that remained among the highest in the nation. That era is over.

After a brief post-COVID bounce carried enrollment to a peak of 141,429 in 2022, South Dakota has now posted three consecutive years of decline. The losses started small: 424 in 2023, 418 in 2024. Then 2025 arrived with a loss of 1,726, four times the prior year and six times larger than the COVID dip of 288 in 2020. The state's public schools now enroll 138,861 students, 2,568 below the peak and 581 fewer than in pre-pandemic 2019.

The acceleration problem

The raw numbers matter less than the trajectory. A loss of 400 students per year in a state with 141,000 is a rounding error, the kind of fluctuation that can be absorbed without closing a school or cutting a position. A loss of 1,726 is not. That is 1.2% of total enrollment in a single year, in a state where per-pupil funding follows students and ranks seventh-lowest nationally at $12,005.

The year-over-year chart reveals two distinct periods. From 2010 through 2012, South Dakota was adding more than 2,000 students annually. Growth then decelerated through the rest of the decade, averaging 1,348 per year from 2014 to 2019, before COVID pushed enrollment negative in 2020. The post-COVID rebound was real but brief. South Dakota has now entered a phase where losses are not only persistent but compounding.

Fewer children entering, more graduating out

Kindergarten enrollment peaked at 12,082 in 2022. By 2025, it had fallen to 10,954, a decline of 1,128 students, or 9.3%. Over the same period, 12th grade enrollment rose from 9,119 to 9,964, a gain of 845. The state is losing students at the front of the pipeline faster than it is gaining them at the back.

The kindergarten decline tracks South Dakota's falling birth rate. The state's birth rate dropped from 15 per 1,000 population in 2007 to 12.2 per 1,000 between 2022 and 2023, its lowest on record. State demographer Weiwei Zhang told a legislative committee in January 2024 that projections call for "fewer school-age kids" over the coming decade. Even so, South Dakota's fertility rate remains near the top nationally, above the national replacement level of 2.1, which means the kindergarten decline here is modest compared to states where birth rates collapsed a decade ago.

The grade 12 bulge will naturally resolve as the smaller kindergarten cohorts from 2020 onward work their way through the system. When they do, South Dakota will lose students from both ends simultaneously.

Where the students aren't going to school

Three districts account for 53.1% of the statewide decline since 2022. Rapid City Area^↗ lost 703 students, a 5.5% drop. Watertown^↗ lost 378, a 9.9% decline severe enough that the district considered closing an elementary school in 2023, though the board deadlocked 2-2 on the proposal. Sioux Falls^↗, the state's largest district with 24,841 students, has shed 283 since 2022.

Rapid City's situation is the most acute. The district has lost nearly 2,000 students since its peak of 13,982 in 2012, a 13-year decline that predates any statewide trend. Board member Christine Stephenson told the Rapid City Journal: "We know that we're not losing kids in Rapid City. We know that people are moving here with their families. They're not enrolling in our schools, or they're pulling them out." The district lost another 273 students in the most recent year alone.

The alternative instruction drain

One factor distinguishing South Dakota's decline from national patterns is the scale of its shift toward alternative instruction. The state's alternative instruction enrollment, which includes homeschooling, unaccredited private schools, online programs, and microschools, reached 12,433 students in 2025, nearly triple the 3,933 enrolled in 2014. That 12,433 now represents 7.6% of all students receiving an education in South Dakota.

"South Dakota saw a 143 percent increase in home school enrollment in the last ten years, the highest of any state during that span." — KOTA TV, December 2025

The growth is not concentrated in rural areas. The Sioux Falls School District reported the largest single-district increase in alternative instruction in 2025, with 131 additional students. Harrisburg^↗ added 78, Brandon Valley^↗ added 67, and Rapid City added 64. Governor Larry Rhoden has indicated he expects public school enrollment to continue declining, citing both alternative instruction growth and lower birth rates.

Whether the alternative instruction surge represents families choosing a genuinely different educational model or families exiting a system they perceive as inadequate is not something enrollment data can answer. Lisa Fisher, president of Families for Alternative Instruction Rights in South Dakota, has pointed to school environment and academic concerns as the top reasons parents choose homeschooling.

The suburban exception

The statewide decline masks a sharp geographic divergence. South Dakota's Sioux Falls suburbs are still growing, and growing fast.

Harrisburg has grown every year since at least 2007, rising from 1,716 students to 6,398, a 272.8% increase that has made it the state's third-largest district. Superintendent Jennifer Lowery has said "there are 37,000 acres coming into the Harrisburg School District by 2030," with 900 new homes planned around just one elementary school in the next two to five years. Brandon Valley grew 72.5% over the same span, from 3,018 to 5,206. Tea Area^↗ more than doubled from 1,190 to 2,514.

Sioux Falls itself, by contrast, has essentially plateaued. The district enrolled 20,006 students in 2007 and 24,841 in 2025, a 24.2% gain that has stalled since 2023. The pattern is a classic suburban donut: the core district flatlines while bedroom communities on its perimeter absorb new housing development and the families that come with it.

The one outlier that does not fit the Sioux Falls metro pattern is Huron^↗, 110 miles to the northwest. Huron grew from 2,149 students in 2007 to 3,042 in 2025, a 41.6% increase driven largely by refugee and immigrant resettlement in the city's meatpacking industry.

What to watch next

The 2025-26 school year data, when South Dakota's DOE publishes it, will determine whether the 1,726-student loss was an anomaly or the start of a steeper trajectory. Two indicators will be decisive. The first is kindergarten enrollment: if the 2026 K class falls below 10,900, it will confirm that the birth-rate decline is accelerating its way into classrooms. The second is alternative instruction: if the 12,433 figure keeps climbing toward 13,000 or beyond, it will suggest that the public school system is losing market share on top of losing population.

South Dakota spent 13 years as one of the few states in the country where public school enrollment reliably grew. That distinction is gone. Of the state's 147 districts, 86 shrank between 2022 and 2025. Ninety-six enroll fewer than 500 students. For those districts, a loss of even 20 students per year changes what programs they can offer and what staff they can retain. Watertown is considering closing an elementary school. Rapid City cannot fill its bus driver positions. Harrisburg is still building, but its growth rate has halved. The 1,726 students South Dakota lost last year will not be the largest loss on the ledger for long.

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